Spanish Fork, Utah 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

639
FXUS65 KSLC 101022
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
322 AM MST Sun Nov 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure and gradually warming temperatures will
continue into Monday. A quick hitting cold system will bring the
threat of accumulating snow to the northern mountains Tuesday.
Another system may impact the area by next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z Wednesday)...Early morning upper air and
satellite analysis indicates broad upper level ridging persists
across the Southwest. A decaying and splitting upper level trough
is approaching the western Great Basin. Another trough is
approaching the Pacific Coast.

For today, expect temperatures to continue to gradually warm to
near to above normal levels. The previously mentioned
weakening/splitting upper level trough will shift well north of
the area today into early Monday. While previously this system
looked like it could bring an few showers to far northern Utah,
the latest ensemble guidance suite suggests a less than 5 percent
chance of any measurable precipitation in association with this
system.

Monday will continue the warming trend, with temperatures
increasing another 3-5 degrees across the CWA Monday afternoon
into Monday evening.

A stronger upper level trough will cross into PACNW by early
Monday. This system will dig into the Interior West and
strengthen, with a period of frontogenesis well timed with broad
upper level diffluence across the Wasatch Front and adjacent
northern mountains. The cold front is expected to cross the
Wasatch Front around 10 AM - 2 PM Tuesday. If this period of
frontogenesis does correlate with frontal passage across the
Wasatch Front, snow levels in heavier precipitation may bring a
mix of rain/snow or even a changeover to snow for the benches and
perhaps even portions of the valley floor behind the cold front
later Tuesday morning into early Tuesday afternoon.

The most likely area for impacts, however, will be the northern
mountains. Looking at the 25th to 75th percentile for snow totals,
expect around 4 to 8 inches of snow for the upper Cottonwoods,
with less for the remainder of the northern mountains. It should
be noted that models have been trending upward with amounts (due
partially to the previously mentioned period of frontogenesis in
combination with post-frontal northwest flow).

.LONG TERM (After 12Z Wednesday)...As our next trough exits the
region a ridge will start to build into the Great Basin on
Wednesday. This will result in dry conditions with temperatures
warming back to near normal for this time of year.

Guidance is in good agreement regarding a Gulf of Alaska trough
moving onto the west coast towards the end of the week. However,
there are a couple of scenarios that could play out with the
trajectory. Right now, 55% of ensemble members progress this
trough through the Great Basin by next weekend. The remaining 45%
of membership have a slower inland progression of the trough,
potentially even morphing into a closed low off the coast of
California.

As the trough approaches southwesterly flow will start to
increase, resulting in surface southerly winds increasing towards
the end of the week. Ensemble mean H7 temperatures are around -9C.
These temperatures are similar to the temperatures associated
with the past several troughs that have moved through the area.
This would likely result in valley rain and mountain snow with
snow mixing in down to valley floors, at times, especially under
heavier precipitation rates. Details on QPF amounts, snow levels,
and surface temperatures will get ironed out as guidance converges
on a solution in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...VFR conditions will persist through the period
for the KSLC terminal. Scattered high clouds and dry conditions
will continue with light southerly winds transitioning to light
northerly winds during the day.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will persist
for most of the airspace through the period with the exception of
some brief patchy fog possible (30% chance) across Heber and Cache
Valley during the morning hours. Otherwise, scattered high clouds
and dry conditions will continue through the period with light
and variable winds.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

Kruse/Mahan

For more information from NOAA`s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity